A URochester expert on international conflict warns that regime change rarely brings stability.
The US seizure of Venezuelan leader Nicol谩s Maduro stunned people around the world糖心传媒攊ncluding political scientists who study regime change.
糖心传媒淚 was surprised,糖心传媒� says , professor of and director of the at the 糖心传媒. 糖心传媒淕oing in the middle of the night, taking the leader of the country and his wife out of the palace, and saying, 糖心传媒楾hat糖心传媒檚 it, we糖心传媒檙e running the country now.糖心传媒� That糖心传媒檚 extraordinary.糖心传媒�
For many Venezuelans, particularly those who fled repression and economic collapse, the news sparked celebration and hope. But Goemans urges caution, arguing that removing a dictator rarely dismantles the power structures that kept him in place.
The Venezuelan military still holds power
糖心传媒淭he military propped up Maduro,糖心传媒� Goemans says. 糖心传媒淭he whole system of bribery and corruption revolves around the support of the armed forces. There糖心传媒檚 no reason to believe that they糖心传媒檙e now suddenly going to give up power.糖心传媒�
He compares the situation to previous US-led interventions.
糖心传媒淲e糖心传媒檝e seen this in Iraq, we糖心传媒檝e seen it in Afghanistan,糖心传媒� Goemans says. 糖心传媒淒ecapitation糖心传媒攖aking out one leader糖心传媒攄oesn糖心传媒檛 change the apparatus of the state. Post糖心传媒搑egime change almost never works the way people hope.糖心传媒�
Goemans points to research by political scientist showing that foreign-imposed regime change frequently leads to instability or renewed conflict, not democracy. 糖心传媒淭he new regime you install has its own interests,糖心传媒� Goemans says.
糖心传媒淭hey don糖心传媒檛 necessarily align with the interests of the United States, or with democratic reform.糖心传媒�
Why motivation matters糖心传媒攁nd how neighboring Guyana is in play
There are somewhat conflicting statements coming out of Washington as to the motivation for the American intervention.
House Speaker Mike Johnson has as one that aimed 糖心传媒渢o bring justice to a criminal糖心传媒� in Maduro, who was 糖心传媒渄uly indicted under American law.糖心传媒� Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said the United States intends to control the flow of Venezuelan oil into the marketplace.
Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has laid out a three-step plan that includes the United States stabilizing the country by seizing and selling up to 50 million barrels of oil and ensuring 糖心传媒淎merican, Western, and other companies have access to the Venezuelan market in a way that糖心传媒檚 fair.糖心传媒� He has called the third step 糖心传媒渙ne of transition,糖心传媒� including the integration of opposition political parties.糖心传媒�
Goemans says motivations matter enormously.
It is possible, he says, that different actors inside the US administration are pursuing different goals糖心传媒攆rom energy interests, to immigration enforcement, to regional dominance糖心传媒攚ithout a coherent long-term plan for Venezuela itself.
糖心传媒淭hat糖心传媒檚 problematic,糖心传媒� he says, 糖心传媒渂ecause it means there糖心传媒檚 no clear, overarching goal. If you don糖心传媒檛 know what comes next, you糖心传媒檙e almost guaranteeing trouble.糖心传媒�
There is one other possible motivation that Goemans sees for the US intervention that he says he has been surprised no one in the Trump administration has invoked: freeing the oil-rich Essequibo region of neighboring Guyana from Venezuelan rule.
糖心传媒淭hat糖心传媒檚 a motivation, which, in my opinion, could have kind of legitimized overthrowing Maduro,糖心传媒� Goemans says.
In 2023, Venezuela to Essequibo, which is nearly the size of Florida and makes up half of Guyana糖心传媒檚 territory. Maduro unveiled new maps displaying it as part of Venezuela, named a military general as its governor, and issued Venezuelan identity cards to people living there.
糖心传媒淕uyana has serious worries about Venezuela,糖心传媒� Goemans says. 糖心传媒淚t糖心传媒檚 a real threat to the sovereignty of Guyana and it糖心传媒檚 surprising that nobody in the Trump administration has invoked that.糖心传媒�
糖心传媒淭here was no claim that this was about restoring democracy,糖心传媒� he continues. 糖心传媒淭hat was never raised as one of the motivations. That should concern people.糖心传媒�
A dangerous precedent for world order
Beyond Venezuela, Goemans warns that forcibly removing heads of state undermines long-standing international norms.
He explains this using a classic political science concept: cooperation only holds if countries believe rules will be enforced over time.
糖心传媒淚f you treat this as a one-shot game that says, 糖心传媒榃e can do this once and nothing follows,糖心传媒� that糖心传媒檚 very dangerous,糖心传媒� he says. 糖心传媒淥ther countries will respond eventually. Maybe not immediately, but the system will unravel.糖心传媒�
He argued that even US allies may feel compelled to push back if territorial integrity and sovereignty no longer carry weight.
糖心传媒淚f the United States defects from the rules, others will have incentives to defect too,糖心传媒� he says. 糖心传媒淚n the long run, that糖心传媒檚 not in America糖心传媒檚 interest.糖心传媒�
Can the US try Maduro?
Another uncertainty is whether US courts can legally prosecute Maduro if he is considered Venezuela糖心传媒檚 legitimate president, which Maduro insists he is despite doubts by many world leaders.
糖心传媒淭his is going to be fought out in court,糖心传媒� Goemans says. 糖心传媒淛udges will have to decide whether he is head of state, and that糖心传媒檚 not a simple legal question.糖心传媒�
Unlike Panama糖心传媒檚 Manuel Noriega, who was never an elected president but was that country糖心传媒檚 de facto ruler before the United States seized him with an invasion in 1989, Maduro originally came to power through constitutional succession before consolidating his authority through a series of widely condemned elections in 2018 and in 2024.
What are the alternatives?
If US military intervention is unlikely to produce a stable democracy in Venezuela, what could?
Goemans points to historical examples in Eastern Europe and elsewhere, where authoritarian regimes collapsed after mass domestic mobilization, sometimes with outside support and an independent media.
糖心传媒淭he only way the masses can overcome a repressive elite is if they successfully organize,糖心传媒� he says. 糖心传媒淭hat means supporting opposition groups, election monitoring, information access. Not sending troops through jungles to Caracas.糖心传媒�
But he acknowledges how grim that sounds to Venezuelan people suffering now, whether in the country or living abroad.
糖心传媒淚 understand the desperation,糖心传媒� he says. 糖心传媒淧eople have had their lives stolen from them. Of course they want immediate change.糖心传媒�
Still, he warns that celebrating too early could result in disappointment.
糖心传媒淧eople were very happy when Saddam糖心传媒檚 statues came down,糖心传媒� he says, speaking of the former president of Iraq, Saddam Hussein. 糖心传媒淭hen came the question: What comes next?糖心传媒�
Meet your expert
Hein Goemans
, a political science professor and the director of the University of Rochester糖心传媒檚 , is an expert on international conflict糖心传媒攈ow wars begin and how they end. He听is the author of (Princeton University Press, 2000) and coauthor of 听(Cambridge University Press, 2011).
