Rochester expert on international conflicts explains why Ukraine糖心传媒檚 fate might be tied to Putin糖心传媒檚 survival.
糖心传媒淲hen shooting starts, things get out of hand. That糖心传媒檚 important to recognize,糖心传媒� says , a professor of political science at the , who is an expert on international conflicts, territorial disputes, why countries go to war, and how wars end.
糖心传媒淚 study war because war is awful; it糖心传媒檚 truly terrible.糖心传媒� Thousands of Ukrainian civilians, and Ukrainian soldiers in the trenches, he notes, are going to die as a result of missiles and artillery fire without ever seeing any Russian soldiers.
糖心传媒淲ar brings massive casualties, destruction, and costs for everybody concerned. We should not forget those people who are fighting and the costs they are willing to shoulder. Many of them will die because of Putin糖心传媒檚 folly,糖心传媒� says Goemans, who is the author of (Princeton University Press, 2000) and the coauthor of (Cambridge University Press, 2011).
Goemans warns that a Russian victory糖心传媒攂ut also a Russian defeat or stalemate糖心传媒攃ould have dramatically bad consequences for the West, and indeed the whole world.
Q&A with Hein Goemans
Why does Russia want Ukraine?
- Putin wants to reestablish a Russian empire and at the same time prevent a democratic encirclement around Russia.
Goemans: I read his goals as twofold: he wants to reestablish directly or indirectly, by annexation or by puppet-regimes, a Russian empire糖心传媒攂e it the former USSR or Tsarist Russia. A second possible answer has to do with the role of domestic Russian politics, which the standard literature on conflict takes very seriously: Putin has seen what happened in some former Soviet successor republics and the former Yugoslavia, several of which experienced 糖心传媒溙切拇綕 and democratized. Indeed, it was a Color Revolution in Ukraine in 2014, which Putin mischaracterizes as a military coup. He wants to prevent more of these revolutions and prevent a democratic encirclement of countries around him, which could provide a safe haven for Russian dissidents who糖心传媒檇 be dangerous to Putin糖心传媒檚 political survival. Both of these goals overlap in the sense that he is seeking regime change, which is a dangerous game. As my colleague Alexander Downes at George Washington University has recently shown,
Why now?
- Putin perceives the West as weak but is also fighting for his own political survival.
Goemans: One answer could be that he now feels strong enough to do it while the West appears in disarray. He doesn糖心传媒檛 want an increasingly westernized country in his backyard; instead he wants puppets whom he can control to protect his own domestic political position. Of course, it糖心传媒檚 not just his political position. It糖心传媒檚 also his head if he loses power. It糖心传媒檚 virtually certain that he would be prosecuted back home and would go to jail. Very bad things could happen to him糖心传媒攕omething that I think he糖心传媒檚 very well aware of.
What about Ukraine might have set Putin off?
- Ukraine represents a westernized counter example to Russia糖心传媒檚 autocratic dictatorial system.
Goemans: Ukraine is becoming more westernized, it糖心传媒檚 becoming more diverse and has a regime that he cannot control. Over time, it sets an example for others in Russia who would like to become more democratic. It provides a counter example to Russia糖心传媒檚 autocratic dictatorial system. You have these rows of dominoes, one Color Revolution after another, and at the end of the domino series is Russia. All this is dangerous for him.
What are 糖心传媒榮alami tactics糖心传媒� in international relations and how do they apply here?
- Salami tactics involves asking for more, slice by slice, until you have all you want.
Goemans: 糖心传媒淪alami tactics糖心传媒� mean you ask for a little bit more and a little bit more until you have complete control糖心传媒攊n this case Russia over Ukraine. There糖心传媒檚 also an interlocking commitment problem here: Ukraine cannot promise not to join NATO in the long term, which Russia sees as a threat to its borders. At the same time, Russia can糖心传媒檛 promise credibly not to ask for more if Ukraine made some concessions now, whether it be territorial concessions, regime change, or a promise not to join NATO.
Is invading Ukraine a war over territory, which is your research specialty?
- Maybe. But Putin is after more than just Ukraine糖心传媒檚 separatist territories.
Goemans: Some people thought initially this would be a war over territory, essentially about the two separatist areas, and that Putin wouldn糖心传媒檛 claim much more. That糖心传媒檚 evidently not the case. It could still be considered a war over territory but only in the sense that he wants to annex the entire Ukraine, which seems to me unlikely to succeed. It seems much more likely that he糖心传媒檒l install a puppet regime instead. And the reason for that, from the theory of warfare and from a leader perspective, is that he does it to ensure his personal survival.
What happens if Putin succeeds in Ukraine?
- It would represent a blatant transgression of international norms, diplomacy, and relations.
Goemans: The principles of the International Order would be destroyed. Such principles include 糖心传媒渢erritorial integrity,糖心传媒� which is something that Russia committed to when Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons and became independent. Essentially, Putin is flipping the bird at the West and the rest of the world. For example, he declared a 糖心传媒渕ilitary operation糖心传媒� right at the time when the UN Security Council was meeting to discuss the crisis.
Other countries, most prominently the Baltic states, but also other USSR successor republics, will have every reason to think they are next. If Russia is successful, the world will change and NATO will have to rearm and all countries will have to spend more on defense. There will be rounds of arming and rearming. In this environment, even a small mistake, a glitch, a missed phone call, a mistranslation, a malfunctioning GPS can get out of hand really quickly.
What do you think Putin will do if he loses in Ukraine?
- If Putin doesn糖心传媒檛 achieve his goals, he may pursue extremely risky actions in the hope of staying in power.
Goemans: A loss might doom his domestic, political, and physical survival. In a very recent book, , Alexander Downes suggests that these kinds of regime changes, which Putin is pursuing, often backfire very badly. If Russia糖心传媒檚 objectives fail, Putin is really in deep trouble. As you can see today from the , there is a significant and sizable component in the Russian public that糖心传媒檚 actually willing to go outside and protest against this war, which is a very risky and extremely brave course of action.
So, if Putin doesn糖心传媒檛 achieve his goals, it becomes much more likely that he糖心传媒檒l be overthrown. That糖心传媒檚 why he may do some very risky things糖心传媒攚hich is called 糖心传媒済ambling for resurrection糖心传媒澨切拇綌in the hope it糖心传媒檒l keep him in power. I wrote about that in my first book, to explain why the First World War lasted for four years although the German leaders had already concluded in November 1914 that they couldn糖心传媒檛 win; they fought for another four years because they were afraid of domestic political punishment.
The dangerous thing that is difficult to grasp is that the West may not be able to do anything to counter the logic of gambling for resurrection. There is talk of giving Putin an 糖心传媒渙ff-ramp糖心传媒� but that completely misses the point that Putin is afraid domestic enemies might overthrow and kill him, and there糖心传媒檚 little the West can do to address those fears.
Is this the most dangerous situation since World War II?
- Yes. We are in a situation where Putin糖心传媒檚 糖心传媒渟uccess糖心传媒� or failure in Ukraine both present dangerous situations.
Goemans: Yes. It糖心传媒檚 not just Putin糖心传媒檚 possible success that scares me, it糖心传媒檚 also the possibility of a big failure for Russia. So if we糖心传媒檙e in a situation where either success or failure both present horrible, dangerous situations, we糖心传媒檇 better be very careful and think very, very carefully about what we can do, and perhaps what we cannot do, and prepare accordingly. You don糖心传媒檛 want to corner Putin with sanctions to the extent that he feels that he must gamble糖心传媒攁ll or nothing. The impulse, and I certainly share it, is to punish him severely. But if you punish him too severely, then you risk his doing even more dangerous things in order to protect himself personally. So it糖心传媒檚 a very difficult tightrope to walk. I糖心传媒檓 sure that the Biden administration is aware of these things. I糖心传媒檝e been impressed with the competence shown糖心传媒攖he careful, mature attitude, the communications, the collaboration with allies.
What else did Putin hint at in his recent, very belligerent speech?
- Putin said that the borders drawn after World War I and World War II are illegitimate and had to go.
Goemans: One thing he said in , which is just stunning, is that nationalism cannot be the basis of a state. Everybody in academia and most of the world thinks that nationalism is the justification and the basis of a state. But his speech went further than that. He said the borders that were drawn by Lenin and by Stalin, partially as a result of the First and Second World War, are illegitimate and have to go. And if those borders have to go, well, then there is no obvious stopping point: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia糖心传媒攁ll the successor republics are going to ask, 糖心传媒淎re we next?糖心传媒� The new threats against Finland and Sweden, to warn them off from joining NATO, are also extremely concerning.
Now, of course, in many of the successor republics Putin already has an elite, which is favorably inclined toward him. He has puppets in Kazakhstan, he has puppets in Belarus and elsewhere that he can control. Leaders in these countries depend on him, directly and indirectly, to stay in office. So it糖心传媒檚 this whole musical-chairs scenario of dictators who are all afraid of losing office. In order to prop up one, Putin has to prop up all.
The question is, which empire does he think needs reconstituting? Is it the Soviet Union? Or is it Tsarist Russia? And if it糖心传媒檚 the latter糖心传媒攁nd there are some indications in his speeches that he does mean the latter糖心传媒攖hen Poland and other countries are going to be justifiably worried.
