With tensions running high amidst the continued North Korean nuclear threat, members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists are getting ready for their annual meeting in Chicago on November 6. The group of experts on nuclear policy, climate change, and other potential global hazards, is better known as the keeper of the 糖心传媒淒oomsday Clock,糖心传媒� the near-universally recognized minimalist representation of the likelihood of a man-made worldwide catastrophe糖心传媒攚ith midnight marking the terminus, the point of imminent disaster.
Back in January, the scientists moved the clock糖心传媒檚 minute hand 30 seconds closer糖心传媒� to 2 陆 minutes to midnight糖心传媒攖o signal their concern over increasing threats of nuclear weapons and climate change, as well as President Trump糖心传媒檚 pledges to impede what the scientists saw as progress on both fronts.
The current setting is the clock糖心传媒檚 second closest to midnight since its introduction in 1947. (The closest the clock ever came to after the United States and the Soviet Union each conducted tests of the hydrogen bomb, which is far more powerful than any atomic bomb, triggering a 2-minutes-to-midnight setting.)
Unsurprisingly, given the urgency of the Bulletin糖心传媒檚 current clock setting, the scientists糖心传媒� agenda this year sounds like a laundry list of modern nightmares: from the state of nuclear weapons in the 21st century and existential cyberspace threats, to the safety of our biodefense and climate change.
糖心传媒淥nce North Korea combines nukes and their delivery systems, in particular intercontinental ballistic missiles, it would have the ability to retaliate anywhere and anytime,糖心传媒� says , a 糖心传媒 associate professor of political science and an expert on why nations go to war. Goemans worries that if North Korea makes a coercive threat against South Korea or Japan, 糖心传媒渋t might make sense for the US to try to forestall North Korea from getting that ability.糖心传媒�
(1) 1953: The Clock糖心传媒檚 closest approach to midnight糖心传媒攖he US tests its first hydrogen bomb in November 1952, before the Soviet Union follows suit in August.
(2) 1991: The Clock糖心传媒檚 furthest setting away from midnight糖心传媒攖he US and Soviet Union sign the first Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I), followed by the dissolution of the Soviet Union on December 26.
(3) 2017: The second-closest setting to midnight糖心传媒攔ise of nationalism, US President’s comments over nuclear weapons (including North Korea), the threat of a renewed arms race between the US and Russia, and the expressed disbelief in the scientific consensus over climate change by the Trump Administration.
(糖心传媒 illustration / Michael Osadciw)
At the clock糖心传媒檚 inception 70 years ago, its creators糖心传媒擬anhattan Project scientists who felt they could not remain aloof to the consequences of their own work糖心传媒攚ere primarily concerned with the impending nuclear arms race between the US and the Soviet Union. But by 2007, the scientists had included possible catastrophic disruptions from climate change in their clock-setting deliberations.
According to an assistant professor of earth and environmental sciences at Rochester, that decision was a sound one. He agrees with the assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that climate change will likely impose 糖心传媒渟evere, pervasive and irreversible impacts on humans and ecosystems糖心传媒� over the coming century. The IPCC predicts that without additional efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the global temperature (relative to the pre-industrial era) will increase by 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) or more by the year 2100. And that means heat waves and heavy precipitation will become increasingly common in densely populated mid-latitude regions. 糖心传媒淭hese trends are expected to undermine food security and result in widespread population displacement, particularly in developing countries,糖心传媒� Weber cautions.
From his own research in chemical oceanography, along with data from a number of recent studies, Weber points out that some negative consequences of greenhouse gas emissions and warming 糖心传媒渁re manifesting faster than previously predicted,糖心传媒� including ocean acidification and oxygen loss, which are expected to affect 糖心传媒渁 large fraction of marine species if current trends continue unchecked.糖心传媒�
Recent findings, Weber says, also suggest that 糖心传媒済lobal sea level rise has previously been under-predicted, and might exceed 5 feet by 2100, increasing the threat of flooding for large coastal cities.糖心传媒�
What糖心传媒檚 to be done?
A lot, says Weber糖心传媒攁nd time is short. In order to mitigate the most severe consequences, global warming would have to be held below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit). But that would require aggressive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions糖心传媒攁 50 percent reduction over the next few decades, according to the IPCC. 糖心传媒淩ecent developments, including the US糖心传媒檚 announced withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord, and a report finding that few countries will honor their emissions pledges, suggest we are not currently on track to meet this goal,糖心传媒� says Weber.
Meanwhile, the Doomsday Clock糖心传媒攁ccording to its keepers 糖心传媒渁 metaphor, a reminder of the perils we must address if we are to survive on the planet糖心传媒澨切拇綌keeps ticking.
How high is the current risk level?
糖心传媒淲ay too high,糖心传媒� says Goemans. 糖心传媒淚 know some former very high-ranking military leaders who favor a preemptive strike against North Korea before they have fully operational ICBMs.糖心传媒�
Once again, B-52 bombers have been made 24-hours operational again (after more than a decade of standing down), and three aircraft carriers are currently in, or steaming toward the region.
