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Human-caused climate change, ocean acidification and species extinctions may eventually threaten the collapse of civilization, according to some scientists, while other people argue that for political or economic reasons we should allow industrial development to continue without restrictions.

In a new paper, two astrophysicists argue that these questions may soon be resolvable scientifically, thanks to new data about the Earth and about other planets in our galaxy, and by combining the earth-based science of sustainability with the space-oriented field of astrobiology.

糖心传媒淲e have no idea how long a technological civilization like our own can last,糖心传媒� says 糖心传媒 astrophysicist Adam Frank.听 糖心传媒淚s it 200 years, 500 years or 50,000 years?听 Answering this question is at the root of all our concerns about the sustainability of human society.糖心传媒�

糖心传媒淎re we the first and only technologically-intensive civilization in the entire history of the universe?糖心传媒� asks Frank. 糖心传媒淚f not, shouldn糖心传媒檛 we stand to learn something from the past successes and failures of these other species?糖心传媒�

, Frank and co-author Woodruff Sullivan call for creation of a new research program to answer questions about humanity糖心传媒檚 future in the broadest astronomical context. The authors explain: 糖心传媒淭he point is to see that our current situation may, in some sense, be natural or at least a natural and generic consequence of certain evolutionary pathways.糖心传媒�

To frame these questions, Frank and Sullivan begin with the famous Drake equation, a straightforward formula used to estimate the number of intelligent societies in the universe. In their treatment of the equation, the authors concentrate on the average lifetime of a Species with Energy-Intensive Technology (SWEIT). Frank and Sullivan calculate that even if the chances of forming such a 糖心传媒渉igh tech糖心传媒� species are 1 in a 1,000 trillion, there will still have been 1,000 occurrences of a history like own on planets across the 糖心传媒渓ocal糖心传媒� region of the Cosmos.

糖心传媒淭hat糖心传媒檚 enough to start thinking about statistics,糖心传媒� says Frank, 糖心传媒渓ike what is the average lifetime of a species that starts harvesting energy efficiently and uses it to develop high technology.糖心传媒�

Employing dynamical systems theory, the authors map out a strategy for modeling the trajectories of various SWEITs through their evolution. The authors show how the developmental paths should be strongly tied to interactions between the species and its host planet. As the species糖心传媒� population grows and its energy harvesting intensifies, for example, the composition of the planet and its atmosphere may become altered for long timescales.

Frank and Sullivan show how habitability studies of exoplanets hold important lessons for sustaining the civilization we have developed on Earth. This 糖心传媒渁strobiological perspective糖心传媒� casts sustainability as a place-specific subset of habitability, or a planet糖心传媒檚 ability to support life. While sustainability is concerned with a particular form of life on a particular planet, astrobiology asks the bigger question: what about any form of life, on any planet, at any time?

We don糖心传媒檛 yet know how these other life forms compare to the ones we are familiar with here on Earth. But for the purposes of modeling average lifetimes, Frank explains, it doesn’t matter.

糖心传媒淚f they use energy to produce work, they糖心传媒檙e generating entropy. There糖心传媒檚 no way around that, whether their human-looking Star Trek creatures with antenna on their foreheads, or they糖心传媒檙e nothing more than single-cell organisms with collective mega-intelligence. And that entropy will almost certainly have strong feedback effects on their planet糖心传媒檚 habitability, as we are already beginning to see here on Earth.糖心传媒�

糖心传媒淢aybe everybody runs into this bottleneck,糖心传媒� says Frank, adding that this could be a universal feature of life and planets.听 糖心传媒淚f that糖心传媒檚 true, the question becomes whether we can learn anything by modeling the range of evolutionary pathways. Some paths will lead to collapse and others will lead to sustainability. Can we, perhaps, gain some insight into which decisions lead to which kind of path?糖心传媒�

As Frank and Sullivan show, studying past extinction events and using theoretical tools to model the future evolutionary trajectory of humankind糖心传媒攁nd of still unknown but plausible alien civilizations糖心传媒攃ould inform decisions that would lead to a sustainable future.