糖心传媒

In mid-March, California issued the country糖心传媒檚 first shelter-in-place directive, with other states following suit over the next month. During that period, a record 22 million Americans filed for initial unemployment insurance benefits, as the country糖心传媒檚 labor market went into a freefall. So it糖心传媒檚 reasonable for people to link the nationwide shutdown to the downturn in the economy.

But 糖心传媒 professor says there is much more to it.

糖心传媒淲hile the early stay-at-home states have slightly bigger spikes in unemployment claims and job vacancies, the dramatic spikes are everywhere, regardless of a state糖心传媒檚 individual policies,糖心传媒� says Kahn, coauthor of the National Bureau of Economic Research 糖心传媒淟abor demand in the time of COVID-19: Evidence from vacancy postings and UI claims.糖心传媒�

And if a state糖心传媒檚 lockdown policies were not the sole driver of the labor market collapse, people would be wrong to expect an easing of those policies would restore the economy to what it was at the beginning of the year.

Says Kahn, who specializes in labor economics, 糖心传媒淭hat will take people being less worried about the virus and more willing to spend money.糖心传媒�

Kahn糖心传媒攁long with fellow economists Fabian Lange of McGill University and David Wiczer of Stony Brook University糖心传媒攃onsidered two factors: initial unemployment insurance claims and job vacancies. While the unemployment insurance claims indicate the number of people who have lost jobs, the job vacancy data reflect the outlook of employers糖心传媒攁nd that outlook has been dismal. At the same time that insurance claims shot up, postings for job vacancies declined by 30 percent of the level that existed at the beginning of the year.

At first, Kahn was surprised to see those numbers, whether or not a state was under stay-at-home restrictions. 糖心传媒淏ut once we thought about it, we realized what was happening,糖心传媒� says Kahn. 糖心传媒淓ven before we had these stay-at-home policies, people were being urged to avoid restaurants and large-group gatherings in order to avoid getting or spreading the disease. On top of that, people were nervous about whether they would be able to keep their jobs in the impending crisis. All those factors糖心传媒攏ot solely the orders keeping people at home糖心传媒攃ombined to generate the collapse in economic activity.糖心传媒�

Moreover, the collapse occurred in all industries, though it was less pronounced in sectors considered essential, which includes health care, grocery, and protective services such as police and firefighting.

The downturn also took place regardless of work conditions. While it糖心传媒檚 true that people who can work from home are somewhat less likely to lose their jobs, employers are scaling back on those job vacancies, as well. As Kahn explains, there糖心传媒檚 a reduced demand for goods and services, no matter how they糖心传媒檙e provided.

糖心传媒淭hink about people doing business online,糖心传媒� says Kahn. 糖心传媒淐onsumers are worried about the economy and being laid off themselves, so they糖心传媒檙e going to be less likely to purchase those products and services.糖心传媒�

Kahn explains that consumer confidence will be a major factor in restoring the economy. Even if the number of COVID-19 cases drops significantly throughout the country, people may be worried about what will happen in the fall when flu season ramps up. Those worries can affect an employer糖心传媒檚 willingness to bring back workers, as well as the willingness of consumers to spend money.

Given that 糖心传媒渆mployers are contracting across almost all sectors and occupations,糖心传媒� says Kahn, 糖心传媒渓ifting state orders will not be a magic fix.糖心传媒�

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