糖心传媒

You are now listening to the UR Quadcast, the official Quadcast of the University of Rochester.

Sandra Knispel: 糖心传媒淥ne of the greatest threats to democracy is the idea that it is unassailable.糖心传媒� That糖心传媒檚 the tagline for Bright Line Watch, a non-partisan group of political scientists. The scholars monitor US-American democratic practices, the resilience of the system, and threats to the US democracy. That糖心传媒檚 why Bright Line Watch releases a report every three months糖心传媒� and leading national media such as the New York Times, Washington Post, Politico, Wall Street Journal, they all have taken notice. Joining us today is one of the group糖心传媒檚 four scholars糖心传媒� Gretchen Helmke, a professor of political science at the University of Rochester and Bright Line糖心传媒檚 methodologist, Mitch Sanders, who graduated from the University with a PhD in political science and is now a partner at the Rochester-based research firm Meliora.

Welcome to both of you.

Gretchen Helmke: Thank you so much for having us. It糖心传媒檚 a pleasure to be here.

Mitch Sanders: Yes, thank you for having us.

SK: Let糖心传媒檚 start with your tagline. You said, 糖心传媒淭he greatest threats to democracy, or one of the greatest threats, is the idea that it is unassailable.糖心传媒� Gretchen, how did this tagline come about, what糖心传媒檚 the story behind it?

01:12 GH: Well, when we were in the process of writing grants to fund Bright Line Watch, a lot of the other professors that I work with contributed to that process and I think that tagline was developed by Susan Stokes who糖心传媒檚 one of the founding members of Bright Line Watch. And I think it糖心传媒檚 really meant to refer to this idea that the eternal price of liberty is vigilance. The other day I was reading something written by Abraham Lincoln糖心传媒攐ne of his first speeches糖心传媒攁nd he糖心传媒檚 talking about thirty years before the Civil War but he糖心传媒檚 talking about threats to the rule of law and to political institutions in the United States and he had a line in there that reminded me very much of our tagline and that line is: 糖心传媒淲e hope all dangers may be overcome, but to conclude that no danger may ever arise would itself be extremely dangerous.糖心传媒�

2:02 SK: Gretchen, let me back up a little bit. Is it okay if I call you Gretchen and Mitch? 聽Now you joined forces with three colleagues in the field, that糖心传媒檚 Brendan Nyhan and John Carey at Dartmouth College, and Susan Stokes at Yale University. How did you four find each other? How was Bright Line Watch born?

02:20 GH: I had actually known Sue since I was in graduate school. I started at the University of Berkeley and then I transferred to the University of Chicago in my second year and Sue Stokes at that point was an assistant professor in political science at the University of Chicago. And she became my advisor and my mentor so I have worked with her for more than twenty years. She also studies Latin American politics which is my main area of expertise. John Carey actually had the job at the University of Rochester in political science as their Latin Americanist before I came to Rochester. He subsequently moved on to the University of Washington in St. Louis and then Dartmouth, but John and I had been in touch for many years, I糖心传媒檓 very familiar with his work. Both he and Sue are sort of leading experts in Latin America politics that I糖心传媒檝e really looked up to my whole career. And as the election was proceeding, we put together a statement of concern about some of the things that we saw during the campaign. And because of their sort of reputations and their connections they were the first people that I reached out to to try to figure out whether this was a statement that we should circulate and how to go about doing that. So, they were instrumental and then after the election we came together and formed Bright Line Watch. Brendan Nyhan, whom I did not know before this personally, is one of John糖心传媒檚 colleagues and is an expert in American politics. He has done a lot of work on fake news, has worked a lot with the media. [He] has a lot of experience studying democracy in the United States, so it was just very natural that we would bring him on board as well.

04:09 SK: Let me back up a little bit. You just mentioned the statement that political scientists put together. Very briefly糖心传媒攊f you could just explain what that was about.

04:18 GH: Sure. So, about a week before the election, there was a statement that came out from several economists and Nobel prize winners, expressing concern over some of the things that had taken place during the course of the 2016 campaign. And it occurred to me that political scientists also had a similar kind of duty to warn糖心传媒� Particularly people who had studied other parts of the world where democracy had eroded, or where threats to it had emerged. Unfortunately, you know, some of the things that took place in the 2016 campaign were unprecedented here, but sounded very familiar糖心传媒攖he script sounded very similar糖心传媒攖o political scientists who studied other parts of the world. So, for example statements about not necessarily accepting the election results, a major candidate issuing threats against the press, talking about the fact that the judiciary was not independent, threatening to lock up an opponent. These were things that had been, you know, unprecedented in American politics at least at this sort of level of American politics. But these things were very, very familiar to those of us who study other parts of the world. So, we put together a statement that basically outlines several of those principles, said we were concerned and the statement was circulated I believe in a little less than 48 hours. It garnered about 300 to 400 signatures, almost all of the past living presidents of the American Political Science Association signed it, and then the statement gained some media attention as well, right before the election took place.

06:01 SK: What糖心传媒檚 the primary concern you all share at Bright Line Watch?

06:05 GH: The primary concern is really with threats to democratic institutions. It糖心传媒檚 not so much with, you know, particular policy differences that we may have. It糖心传媒檚 not about sort of the state of the president糖心传媒檚 mental health or his incompetency, or things that have been raised by other scholars and other fields. Our main concern has really been with the institutions of democracy. So, basic things like free and fair elections, whether checks and balances are operating, whether there is respect for things like freedom of the press. Our concern is really with sort of regime-level institutions as opposed to particular policies, and our goal was to really bring what we know as academics糖心传媒攚hat we糖心传媒檝e learned from our scholarly work糖心传媒攖o bring that academic perspective to public debates about the quality of democracy in the United States. Its vulnerabilities as well as its sources of resilience.

07:04 SK:聽 Now Bright Line Watch puts out a so-called wave report. You do that every three months. It糖心传媒檚 based on polling data. Tell me more about whom you survey. How you do it? At this point I want to bring in Mitch Sanders. You糖心传媒檝e been waiting patiently. Thank you. You are of course the group糖心传媒檚 methodologist and you糖心传媒檝e jokingly referred to yourself as the fifth Beatle. Tell me what exactly that you do for Bright Line and why the fifth Beatle?

07:26 MS: I realize I should have been more cautious about that metaphor. We糖心传媒檙e here in the recording studio surrounded by musical instruments糖心传媒攁nd none of which I play糖心传媒攂ut the metaphor made sense at the time. I糖心传媒檓 mostly involved in the survey, research that we do both among political science experts and among the general public, so getting that arranged and implemented and then working on analysis and reporting, also, contributing my perspective. I do have a PhD in political science from 20 years ago or so from the University of Rochester. Since then I糖心传媒檝e worked about half of the time in academia and about half of the time in a research role in the private sector, so I think that sort of perspective I found to be helpful糖心传媒攅ven as I think about the sorts of scholarly issues that Bright Line Watch is considering.

08:17 SK: So, tell me as you go about assembling the data, you said you ask on one hand the experts and then you ask the general public. How do you go about doing this?

08:25 MS: So, the, the survey actually began as an expert survey. That was the very first thing we did as the organization was getting going in early 2017. All of these surveys are implemented online. That糖心传媒檚 the state of the art these days and you can reach a large number of people in a very straightforward way using that approach. So, we did two implementations of the expert survey. We compiled a list of almost 10,000 political scientists at institutions around the country. Emailed all of them and in the first wave we got a response of about 1,500 professors to our survey. And we糖心传媒檝e gotten about a 1,000 every time since then, so a nice robust sample. And we asked them a series of questions. The questions are organized around 27 principles of democracy. For example, that elections are conducted, ballots counted, and winners determined without pervasive fraud or manipulation. Another example糖心传媒攁ll adult citizens enjoy the same legal and political rights. There are a number of these statements about rights and political activity as it relates to American democracy, or democracy in general, and we ask our survey respondents either one or two questions about that list of statements. The first question, which we ask sometimes but not all the time, is how important this characteristic is for democracy on a scale that ranges from 糖心传媒渢his has no impact on democracy,糖心传媒� to 糖心传媒渢his enhances democracy,糖心传媒� to 糖心传媒渋f this is absent democracy is compromised,糖心传媒� or 糖心传媒渁 country cannot be considered democratic without this.糖心传媒� So, we ask how important these characteristics are for democracy. We don糖心传媒檛 do that all the time because we believe empirically [that] we糖心传媒檙e finding beliefs about what糖心传媒檚 important. And the relative degree of importance of those beliefs is pretty stable over time so that糖心传媒檚 not something that needs to be asked on an ongoing basis, but in addition. And we do ask this next set of questions every time for the same statements: we ask how well the United States is doing compared to the standard, whether the United States does not meet the standard, partly meets, mostly meets, or fully meets the standard. So we implement the survey. We ask the experts and then in the last two waves糖心传媒攚e糖心传媒檝e done four waves in total糖心传媒攊n the last two of them we糖心传媒檝e also asked a public sample to respond to the same questions.

10:49 SK: Now, as a long time journalist I also believe in full disclosure. So, we should mention here that you happen to know Gretchen quite well. You糖心传媒檝e been married to each other for nearly a dozen years糖心传媒� So, two political scientists糖心传媒擨 just have to ask I糖心传媒檓 curious糖心传媒攚hat do you guys talk about at your dinner table?

11:07 MS: Well it糖心传媒檚 not always as lofty as you might imagine. [Childcare and family issues] That糖心传媒檚 probably 90 to 95 percent of the conversation and then the other 5 to 10 percent is public affairs. Our daughter has a lot of opinions about politics and democracy, but it糖心传媒檚 mostly, at least at dinner time, typical family stuff.

11:29 SK: Now, you compare the opinion and the assessment of political experts, as you said, with that of the American public. Is there something that is particularly tricky about gathering this data and then why these two groups? Why is it important that you break out the experts from the general public?

11:44: MS: Well, there糖心传媒檚 a long tradition of doing both of these things糖心传媒攕urveying experts, as well as surveying the public. There are any number of pretty generously-sized handfuls of expert surveys of democracy in different countries around the world糖心传媒� different elements of democracy, different components of democracy糖心传媒� but this model is fairly standard. What we糖心传媒檝e done is we糖心传媒檝e taken the core of that idea but modified it, I think, in an important way where most expert studies will have a large number of experts in general or in total, but each country糖心传媒攁nd they would evaluate a large number of countries糖心传媒攅ach country might be evaluated by a small number of people. So, it is broad-scope geographically for a typical expert study, a broad population that糖心传媒檚 being sampled, but for anyone country a significantly smaller sample. We糖心传媒檝e taken that and I would say inverted it糖心传媒攊n that we ask a very broad sample of political scientists, but we糖心传媒檙e only asking really about one country. We do sometimes get into international comparisons, but the primary focus of what we糖心传媒檙e asking about is the core of these 27 principles of democracy, as they糖心传媒檙e implemented, or to what degree they糖心传媒檙e implemented in the United States. Surveying the public, of course, is done very broadly and what we wanted to do is ask our questions of the public for a similar reason糖心传媒攖o understand what the public believes about democracy, about the state of democracy, about what糖心传媒檚 important for democracy糖心传媒攂ecause that糖心传媒檚 really what democracy is. You can define democracy in a lot of different ways, but all of those ways involve a connection between the public and the government. So, understanding what the public sees as important for democracy, understanding what the public perceives as the extent [to which] the United States is fulfilling, or not fulfilling certain standards. I think that糖心传媒檚 a vital part of understanding the state of American democracy today.

13:44 SK: So, if you糖心传媒檙e all wondering like me糖心传媒攍et糖心传媒檚 cut to the chase directly here and this is a question for both of you: Is the US democracy in peril?

13:53 GH: I think that is sort of the question of our generation and a lot of different scholars are looking at this question. There have been several books that have come out just in the last month that look directly at this question. On the one hand, I think that the chances of a complete breakdown糖心传媒攖he kind that we have seen for example in the 20^th century in Latin America糖心传媒攁 military coup style breakdown, I think that糖心传媒檚 highly unlikely. Scholars who have studied this statistically looking at the relationship between levels of wealth and likelihood of a democratic breakdown would basically糖心传媒攂ecause of the wealth of the US糖心传媒攑ut the chances of something like that happening here at approximately zero. Another factor that I think really helps the United States, according to the scholarship, is just the age of our democracy. There糖心传媒檚 been a lot of research showing that just how long a democracy has been in place serves to protect it. On the other hand, I do think糖心传媒攁nd our surveys show this糖心传媒攖hat there are reasons to be concerned about the sort of gradual or slow erosion of democracy. And I think that process糖心传媒攚here it糖心传媒檚 a slow kind of piecemeal challenging of different institutions that support democracy糖心传媒攊s something that we see in several parts of the world, but I think something that we are now seeing in the United States today. It糖心传媒檚 very early on so I don糖心传媒檛 know what the long-term prospects are, but, yes, I think there are reasons to be concerned.

15:29 SK: In the report, actually, you direct your readers糖心传媒� attention and you say 糖心传媒減ay attention to the targeting of democracy糖心传媒檚 so-called referees.糖心传媒� If you could talk a little bit about this: who are these referees? What糖心传媒檚 particularly disturbing to you?

15:41 GH: The scholarship on democratic erosion, as opposed to democratic breakdown, is relatively young. It糖心传媒檚 a relatively new scholarship, but I think one of the sort of common patterns that seems to be emerging is that usually democracy happens at the hands of someone, an executive leader who is elected by the people and has some legitimacy. And the issue is that they often campaign on, you know, precisely this idea of draining the swamp and getting rid of different institutional elites. And in this case the referees would be anything from the media who are an ongoing check on what the administration is doing, to bureaucracies糖心传媒攕o, we saw the firing, for example, of the FBI director James Comey糖心传媒攖o the courts. So, the referees are basically those people operating in those institutions that have the power to set constitutional limits on the government.

16:42 SK: Mitch, I want to go back to you and if I may refer to it this way糖心传媒攖o the sausage making. Clearly, you糖心传媒檙e asking the public 糖心传媒淒o you believe. Do you think糖心传媒攔anging from judicial independence糖心传媒攊s it working, to checks and balances, to limiting executive power?糖心传媒� Have you found that these have declined across the board? Is public faith really a good indicator of what糖心传媒檚 actually happening? In other words, why does it matter what the public believes?

17:07 MS: I think that糖心传媒檚 important because the fundamental essence of democracy is that there糖心传媒檚 a connection between the public and the government and some elements of that connection are based on politics and political parties. We have elections and as a result of elections there is a change in public policy, but some elements of government are meant to be politically neutral, like who糖心传媒檚 allowed to vote or who糖心传媒檚 prosecuted for potential crimes and for what reasons. So, the distinction between the elements of democracy that are supposed to vary with partisanship and the parts of democracy that are not intended to vary with partisanship糖心传媒攂ecause democracy is fundamentally about the connection between citizens and the government understanding any weakening of that糖心传媒擨 think is vital, and if there is to be a weakening of that糖心传媒攊t would be something that would be perceived.

18:03 SK: So, if you would take me back, why are we asking? Why are you asking the public these questions?

18:09 MS: Well, the connection between the public and government is so essential for democracy that we feel that that糖心传媒檚 very important to assess beliefs among the public about how well the United States is performing, especially juxtaposed against the factors that are considered to be most important. So, here糖心传媒檚 one example from the last two waves of our survey. We ask about different characteristics of democracy, how important are they, and then how well is the United States performing? And so, with those figures we can identify where is there a substantial gap, so to speak, between expectations and fulfillment? What are the elements of democracy that are considered to be very important but are not considered to be fulfilled in a very strong way? And if we look at the results from our last two waves of the survey among the public there are three factors that I think stand out as being important but not being highly fulfilled. One is that investigations are not politically compromised. Another is that there are sanctions for government officials who engage in misconduct, and another is that there are no private gains from office. So, I think if we think about what the past 12 plus months have shown the public in the headlines, to me these are natural things for the public to be thinking about. And what we糖心传媒檙e seeing in these results is that these are the things they are thinking about. So they糖心传媒檙e important but there not being widely fulfilled. The public is perceiving that, and I think that糖心传媒檚 an important fact as we think about the state of democracy.

19:44 SK: Let糖心传媒檚 go to the weakening. So, for example, in your last wave report you found that the public糖心传媒檚 belief that the government protects free speech, does not interfere with the press, and also that political candidates do not withhold information糖心传媒攖hat that belief has dropped. How do you explain that?

20:03 GH: So, our goal at this point has not necessarily been to explain particular trends in responses. It has really been too sort of establish that the perceptions are shifting, or just establish what they are for the public and for experts, and especially, I don糖心传媒檛 know if this has come out yet, but especially within different groups within the public. So, one of the things that we do in these public surveys is we break out Trump supporters糖心传媒攖hose who say that they support the current administration糖心传媒攁nd opponents of the administration. And part of what our survey is able to do is detect a kind of polarization in perceptions across these two groups in a wide range of areas. So, it糖心传媒檚 not just糖心传媒斕切拇�媒淚s democracy good or bad?糖心传媒� or 糖心传媒淚s it operating poorly or well?糖心传媒� It糖心传媒檚 really a much more nuanced, fine-grained assessment across these two different groups.

21:03 SK: So, what happens? For example, in the report you write that the public basically agrees糖心传媒攁nd I糖心传媒檓 quoting here糖心传媒斕切拇�媒渢hat the performance of US democracy has declined during Trump糖心传媒檚 now one-year tenure in office.糖心传媒� When you then look across the political spectrum and you look at the Republicans, Democrats, Independents糖心传媒攄o they largely agree on this or do they not at all? How does this work?

21:22 GH: So, we are in the middle of writing a more academic version of the survey report that we put out last month. And the theoretical framework that we糖心传媒檙e drawing from is something that was developed by Stanford political scientist Barry Weingast. And his basic idea, which goes back to John Locke, is that in order for a democracy to continue, in order for the rule of law to continue, two basic conditions must be met in the public. The first is that the public must basically agree on what the limits of government are糖心传媒攕o consensus around democratic priorities. And in our surveys we see that. We see a fair amount of consensus over how these different groups in the public rank democratic priorities. Where we糖心传媒檙e starting to see a problem糖心传媒攁nd this is the second condition of the theory糖心传媒攊s the idea that once you share democratic priorities, you also have to share a view of when those priorities are being violated or upheld, and here is where we do find quite a bit of difference between these two groups in the public. So, on sort of all of the principles we see slight declines for Trump supporters and large declines for Trump opponents, but we see polarization across some of the most important principles糖心传媒攆or example constitutional limits. We see growing polarization糖心传媒� where the opponents of Trump see it in decline in terms of performance, [and] the supporters of Trump see it as actually improving. So, we do see some polarization within certain principles.

23:01 SK: Let me be a little bit of a devil糖心传媒檚 advocate here. You are, Gretchen, a comparatist. Your specialty lies in Latin America, specifically Argentina and Ecuador. Doesn糖心传媒檛 the US democracy look stellar by comparison to some of its Latin American counterparts?

23:14 GH: I think, by comparison, the United States does look very, very good compared to Latin American. However, I think a lot of the things that were said in the campaign and some of the rhetoric since the campaign unfortunately is very reminiscent of some of the leaders who have come to power in Latin America and subsequently trampled democratic institutions.

23:38 SK Going back now to 1811. We糖心传媒檙e really going back. Joseph de Maistre糖心传媒攖he French philosopher and diplomat糖心传媒攈e wrote that 糖心传媒渆very nation gets the government it deserves.糖心传媒� Does the US no longer deserve democracy? Has the American public simply become too complacent? Where糖心传媒檚 the problem?

23:52 Gretchen: So, I think I would amend his statement to say something like 糖心传媒渆very nation gets the government it demands.糖心传媒� And I think one of the things we are trying to look at with the Bright Line Watch surveys is to see what the priorities are. So, does the public continue to value these various components of democracy? And for the most part our answer is 糖心传媒測es,糖心传媒� but I think there are scholars who are finding that there has been a decline in support for democratic government worldwide. There糖心传媒檚 a new book coming out by Yascha Mounk that makes exactly this point. There was a recent survey published in the Washington Post by one of my colleagues, Susan Stokes, that looks at some increasing support for military solutions as opposed to democratic government. So, I think there is reason to be concerned, but I think it糖心传媒檚 not so much [a question of] what the public deserves as what it demands from its government.

24:48 MS: I think the question of what is deserved is probably best left to the philosophers, but I do think that democracy is not something that just simply happens. It doesn糖心传媒檛 operate on autopilot or at least doesn糖心传媒檛 always operate on autopilot, and democracy needs to be reviewed and evaluated for an assessment of the degree to which we are really fulfilling these principles that are considered to be important. We do see in our public surveys and the expert surveys so many of the statements that we are presenting are considered to be quite important. And so, in a time like ours to make sure that we糖心传媒檙e paying attention to the extent to which they糖心传媒檙e being fulfilled or not fulfilled, I think, is essential for what we end up getting as a democracy and as a political system.

25:35 SK: As a last question I want to get to something that is very specific and we haven糖心传媒檛 really seen that before. Correct me if I糖心传媒檓 wrong. If you have a president and those around him who repeat the view that there糖心传媒檚 no such thing as objective truth even calling outright lies quote, 糖心传媒渁lternative facts糖心传媒� 糖心传媒攄oesn糖心传媒檛 that also really hurt our democracy?

25:56 GH: It糖心传媒檚 hard to imagine that it wouldn糖心传媒檛 hurt democracy. If democracy is about citizens糖心传媒� having information and using that information to hold governments accountable then a government that consistently lies to the citizens is, just by definition, a problematic thing. There are different statistics floating around out there but one that I saw was about 2,000 lies during the first year of the administration. I think the danger that other people have pointed to糖心传媒攊s normalizing this. This is not something that is normal. And I think the other problem is that糖心传媒攁gain I think this is a terrain more for psychologists than political scientists糖心传媒攂ut the idea is that the more lies that are told the more overwhelmed the public becomes. And it糖心传媒檚 very difficult for people to continue to process and sort of fight against these lies and violations of the truth over and over again. And so, I think it potentially erodes public interest in politics, let alone public resistance, too, and this is some of the work my colleague Brendan Nyhan has done his research on as well.

27:10 SK: I want to ask both of you with all the problems we糖心传媒檝e talked about, what gives you hope? How do you sleep at night?

27:16 MS: I think about our daughter who糖心传媒檚 seven and a half. And I糖心传媒檓 not saying I do this every night to help me get to sleep, but it is on my mind that I think about what we糖心传媒檙e doing in general. She糖心传媒檚 seven and a half and I envision her as an old woman maybe she糖心传媒檚 75 years old. I糖心传媒檝e left the scene a long time ago and someone asks her what it was like to live in the times we live in now. And when she糖心传媒檚 75 she will know how it all turns out and we don糖心传媒檛 know that now. But I envision someone asking her this question about what it was like to live in our times, and I envision her telling a story about how the times were very challenging and very dangerous but that our country came through it糖心传媒� and not only came through it, but came through it stronger than before. That糖心传媒檚 the hope that I have and that糖心传媒檚 a very important motivator. And so as a parent, as a person, as a part of Bright Line Watch my goal is to do everything I can to make sure that that happy outcome is achieved.

28:19 GH: I think from my part, there is certainly a lot of reasons to be concerned, but I think that there糖心传媒檚 also a lot of resilience that we see with our institutions糖心传媒攆or example, the voter commission that was put together on very spurious allegations of voter fraud. The states pushed back against that and that commission was disbanded. I think the courts have been relatively good about upholding rights. I think the press has done an outstanding job covering the administration. I remember talking to one journalist and she talked about covering the news is like drinking from a fire hose. The pace of news is so fast and, you know, sort of following the bright shiny objectives is tempting but it糖心传媒檚 also important to pay attention to the stories that really matter and the changes that are really happening. So, you know, just as a final thing, I think that citizens are becoming much more engaged. I think voter turnout will rise in the coming election. I think more and more candidates are running, more and more elections are being contested, so I do have some hope.

SK: Thank you so much to both of you for coming into our studio today!

GH, MS: Thank you so much for having us.

29:36 SK: You were listening to Gretchen Helmke, a professor of political science at the University of Rochester, who糖心传媒檚 one of the four political scientists behind the quarterly report Bright Line Watch糖心传媒攖hat糖心传媒檚 of course the report that tracks the health of the US political system糖心传媒攁nd Mitch Sanders, who is the group糖心传媒檚 methodologist and who is a partner at the Rochester-based research firm Meliora.

30:00 Thank you for listening. For the University of Rochester糖心传媒檚 Quadcast I糖心传媒檓 your host Sandra Knispel.