Cognitive scientists at the University of Rochester say they have an alternative to the standard explanation for why order matters when the human mind processes information. Instead of ignoring the order in which people receive information, they embrace it.
糖心传媒淢ost researchers have treated the order in which the information is shown as a nuisance that can bias the interpretation of data,糖心传媒� said Ting Qian, lead author and a former graduate student in brain and cognitive sciences at the University of Rochester. But as Qian糖心传媒檚 co-author and thesis advisor, Professor Richard Aslin explained, 糖心传媒淲e see it as a part of the natural statistics of the real world, and therefore a signal糖心传媒攐r cue糖心传媒攖hat can be the basis of rational decisions.糖心传媒�
In a paper published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Qian and Aslin have explained that our tendency to detect patterns in data is built into our cognitive processes, even when it糖心传媒檚 at the risk of overestimating the importance of such patterns.
When a coin is flipped, it rarely alternates between heads and tails over a large number of flips. Instead, there will be multiples of one, then the other.
糖心传媒淚f we get an unusually high multiple糖心传媒攎aybe five or six heads糖心传媒攕omeone could easily assume it糖心传媒檚 an unfair coin,糖心传媒� said Aslin. 糖心传媒淏ut if the coin is normal, and if the person waits long enough, the number of heads and tails would pretty much even out.糖心传媒�
Qian and Aslin explain that even when patterns do not lead to correct conclusions糖心传媒攁s in the case of assuming a standard coin has been modified in a way to come up heads more times than not糖心传媒攖he patterns provide information that point to possibilities that might not have been considered otherwise.
For example, if there were several coins being flipped, and an observer knew that one of the coins was biased, an unusually large number of consecutive heads might be a cue that the one coin is unfair.
糖心传媒淚f we could wait forever in any given situation, we糖心传媒檇 have all the information we need to reach a fair conclusion,糖心传媒� said Aslin. 糖心传媒淏ut in the real world, we need to make decisions more quickly. And that involves working with bundles of data that convey, what looks like, consistent information糖心传媒攕uch as a coin coming up heads four straight times.糖心传媒�
In their work, the two researchers began by replicating the classic 糖心传媒渉ot hand糖心传媒� in basketball study conducted by Amos Tversky and Thomas Gilovich (1985) to see how people interpreted players糖心传媒� performances based on their shooting statistics. Qian and Aslin showed 100 subjects six different sequences of data presented in bundles糖心传媒�3 hits, 3 misses, 3 hits, 3 misses糖心传媒攁nd asked them whether the performances could be classified as 糖心传媒渟treak shooting.糖心传媒� Qian and Aslin糖心传媒檚 results were in agreement with the original study. While the data showed players making about 50 percent of their shots during a game, 90 percent of the subjects perceived streak shooting, even though the streaks were too small to support the notion that any player had a 糖心传媒渉ot hand.糖心传媒�
Tversky and colleagues interpreted the perception of streak shooting under these circumstances as irrational because the overall evidence indicates the shooters have a roughly 50 percent success rate, and the short bundles of made and missed shots are typical of what is found in situations with two recurring possibilities. In contrast, Qian and Aslin argued that the tendency to see streaks is an inevitable result of the brain糖心传媒檚 programming to use order as a cue to hidden structures in sequential data.
糖心传媒淲e proposed that this perception of streaks is not because of a failure to understand what probability is,糖心传媒� said Aslin. 糖心传媒淚t糖心传媒檚 actually due to the natural tendency of the human mind to seek patterns.糖心传媒�
Sometimes the streaks are real, of course.
When deciding which players to use at the end of a close game, a coach may consider a player糖心传媒檚 consecutive hits or misses. 糖心传媒淚f a player has missed four straight attempts, it may lead the coach to ask whether the player has an injury,糖心传媒� said Qian. 糖心传媒淭hat糖心传媒檚 a possibility that might not have occurred to the coach, if not for the pattern of several consecutive misses.糖心传媒�
Qian and Aslin developed a rational computational model to explain how people infer such hidden structures in sequential data, which they refer to as 糖心传媒渂undles.糖心传媒� They call it the Hibachi grill process (HGP) mixture model, named for a popular Japanese-style dining experience. Imagine a restaurant at which one entr茅e is the primary offering at each table and customers are seated based on their meal preferences. The owner is trying to maximize customer satisfaction and staff efficiency by having customers sit at the tables of their preferred dishes. The HGP mixture model extends the metaphor to include the assumption that restaurant customers typically arrive as groups of friends who have similar tastes and would want to sit at the same table. The model uses mathematical computations in an attempt to identify those hidden groups of friends from a stream of customers by relying on the stimulus order糖心传媒攖hat is, the order in which the customers enter the restaurant. The additional feature糖心传媒攖hat different groups of friends may share the same table糖心传媒攇ives the model its name 糖心传媒� a resemblance to the typical seating arrangement in many Hibachi grill restaurants in the US.
However, Qian and Aslin said, the HGP mixture model is a description of the mathematical underpinnings involving cognitive processes, and does not necessarily reflect on the 糖心传媒渞ationality糖心传媒� of the conclusions drawn from data.
It is unclear whether people should discover bundles from order in every situation. The Ebola crisis offers a real-world scenario. 糖心传媒淚f, for example, a person heard about three consecutive patients at a medical clinic who were diagnosed with the Ebola virus, he or she might suspect a community-wide epidemic,糖心传媒� said Aslin. But, it糖心传媒檚 possible that the information conveyed by the patient order was not meaningful. It may be that the three patients were from the same household and contracted the disease because they were living together.
Qian and Aslin said that the HGP model reveals not what the world really is, but what our mind interprets it to be, assuming a crucial role for the order of information.
