糖心传媒

Rochester political scientists present evidence from Brazil.

Political parties and candidates who focus on the poor tend to be found on the left of the political spectrum. Yet, right-wing parties frequently win elections in developing countries despite the fact that a vast majority of the electorate lives in poverty. Why do so many poor voters favor candidates on the right?

A team of 糖心传媒 political scientists explains the apparent contradiction in published in the American Journal of Political Science.

, an assistant professor of political science, and , who earned his PhD from Rochester in 2020 and is now an assistant professor of political science at Madrid-based , find that right-wing parties rely successfully on so-called 糖心传媒渄escriptive representation糖心传媒� to win elections. Descriptive representation糖心传媒攊n which candidates present themselves as sharing certain qualities with large segments of their electorates糖心传媒攊s based on the idea that a group is more likely to elect a candidate whose characteristics mirror some of the more typical experiences and outward markers of the group.

In other words, candidates themselves need to appear similar. In the case of municipal elections in Brazil the candidates need to appear less wealthy, less educated, less privileged糖心传媒攖o convince a majority of prospective working- or lower-class voters.

糖心传媒淐andidates聽generally糖心传媒攐n the left and right糖心传媒攅mphasize their resemblance with the targeted voting population糖心传媒攊n this case, the poor糖心传媒攊n any characteristic that might lead voters to see the candidate as one of them,糖心传媒� explains Frey. In the case of Brazil, candidates emphasize their lack of formal education to connect to these voters.

糖心传媒楧escriptive representation糖心传媒� works糖心传媒攂ut only when the policies match聽

One would expect left-wing parties to jump on the idea of class-based descriptive representation. Indeed, former Brazilian president (better known as 糖心传媒淟ula糖心传媒�), a union leader during the 1970s who served as the nation糖心传媒檚 president from 2003 to 2010, often points to his lack of education to emphasize his ability to succeed as a politician.

Yet, the Rochester political scientists uncover an empirical pattern in Brazil糖心传媒檚 municipal elections that defies this conventional wisdom: it is the political right that really capitalizes on descriptive representation in the poorest areas, not the left.

糖心传媒淭o credibly shift its position, the right-wing party nominates candidates who are descriptively closer to the poor,糖心传媒� says Frey.

Frey and Desai develop a theory of candidate selection and policy choice and test it by examining Brazilian municipal elections from 2004 to 2016. They discover that candidates on the right are successful in poorer regions only when they can match the pro-poor policies espoused by candidates on the left and manage to appear cut from the same cloth as their prospective voters in high-poverty areas.

For example, the team finds that right-wing mayors in Brazil can afford to spend less on the poor than left-wing mayors in better-off municipalities. But in high-poverty municipalities, the right not only has to match the left’s policies, it also nominates less educated candidates.

Why not go for 糖心传媒榯he real McCoy?糖心传媒�

What then prevents parties on the right from simply nominating candidates with more genuine connections to the broad糖心传媒攁nd less privileged糖心传媒攑opulace?

First, candidate selection does not happen in a vacuum and depends on the available pool. In Brazil, as in most democracies around the world, the candidate pool doesn糖心传媒檛 really reflect the population. For example, while more than 60 percent of Brazilian voters did not graduate from high school, fewer than 20 percent of Brazilian mayoral candidates did not. This pattern has been well-established in even richer democracies, such as Sweden.

糖心传媒淧eople with higher human capital, such as higher levels of education, are simply more likely to choose to go into politics,糖心传媒� says Desai. 糖心传媒淎t a basic level, it糖心传媒檚 more costly for political parties to nominate candidates who are less educated and look more like the poor simply because it糖心传媒檚 too hard to find them.糖心传媒�

Second, there are a few aspects of policy and mayors糖心传媒� electoral performance where parties and voters prefer candidates with so-called 糖心传媒渉igher human capital.糖心传媒� Desai and Frey find suggestive evidence that those municipalities that are governed by less educated mayors receive fewer resources from the federal government to invest in infrastructure projects, including hospitals and schools. What is more, these municipalities have lower school enrollment rates and show fewer doctors糖心传媒� visits.

These candidates are also not as adept at attracting votes for their parties in subsequent federal elections: 糖心传媒淰oters could punish parties for nominating less educated candidates because of their worse administrative performance, despite a favorable redistributive policy position towards the poor,糖心传媒� says Desai.

That糖心传媒檚 why parties may be wary of nominating less educated candidates. 糖心传媒淲hile this strategy may win them this election,糖心传媒� Desai says, 糖心传媒渢he parties might have to sacrifice too much in the long run.糖心传媒�

Do the findings translate to the US and elsewhere?

Right-wing municipal candidates in Brazil won because they employed descriptive representation matched by pro-poor policies. Yet, Frey and Desai caution that they can糖心传媒檛 speak to whether the same evidence-based causal relationship exists for糖心传媒攕ay the 2016 general US general election. Frey, however, observes that despite his elite background, former President Trump was able to connect with working-class voters by emphasizing his position as a 糖心传媒淲ashington outsider糖心传媒� and by adding that President Biden also in an attempt to win over those same voters.

The same is true for the right-wing leader of Hungary, who has been this European country糖心传媒檚 Prime Minister since 2010, and prior from 1998 to 2002. According to Frey, Orb谩n demonstrates precisely the behavior they study糖心传媒�. 糖心传媒淥rb谩n is trying to identify himself with his targeted voters in order to signal that he糖心传媒檒l implement their desired policies, even though he is none of those things anymore,糖心传媒� says Frey. Yet, in order to know if those observations really confirm a true empirical pattern, researchers would need to establish the same causal connection that Frey and Desai found in Brazil. Until then, all we know is that more research is needed, cautions the Rochester team.

The data, procedures, and analyses for the team糖心传媒檚 article are available on the聽American Journal of Political Science聽Dataverse within the Harvard Dataverse Network.

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