Experts in Bright Line Watch poll see a high chance some Republican candidates will be unwilling to concede midterm election losses.
Cofounded in 2017 by the University of Rochester糖心传媒檚 Gretchen Helmke and three other political scientists糖心传媒擝rendan Nyhan and John Carey of Dartmouth College, and Susan Stokes of the University of Chicago糖心传媒� is a nonpartisan initiative that conducts regular surveys designed to monitor the overall stability and performance of American democracy. Mitchell Sanders 糖心传媒�97 (PhD), of Rochester-based Meliora Research, is the group糖心传媒檚 director of survey research.
According to the Bright Line Watch survey, American Democracy on the Eve of the 2022 Midterms, academic experts see a roughly 75 percent chance that more than two high-profile Republican candidates, running for national or statewide offices in the midterm elections, may refuse to concede an election loss. Additionally, these experts rate the high number of 2020 election deniers among Republican candidates 糖心传媒渢he most abnormal and important event of the past year糖心传媒� and one of the 糖心传媒渕ost extreme糖心传媒� political events to take place in the United States since聽2016.
The same survey, fielded by a team of nonpartisan academics who poll experts and the public at regular intervals about the health of US democracy, also finds that two years into President Joe Biden糖心传媒檚 term, approximately two-thirds of Republican voters still don糖心传媒檛 consider him the legitimate winner of the 2020 election.
糖心传媒淲e are losing an essential feature of any democracy糖心传媒攖he willingness of parties to lose elections,糖心传媒� says Bright Line Watch cofounder who is the Thomas H. Jackson Distinguished University Professor and the faculty director of the at the . 糖心传媒淲e now have a situation in which one of the major parties is signaling that it糖心传媒檚 no longer willing to do that.糖心传媒�
Helmke, who studies political instability, constitutional crises, the rule of law, and Latin American politics, adds: 糖心传媒淩epublican elites are very wary of challenging Trump糖心传媒檚 narrative about 2020 because they糖心传媒檒l get blowback from him and from his base, and we糖心传媒檝e seen in this election cycle how that can end in primary defeats.糖心传媒�
As voters gear up for the first national elections since the failed attempt to overturn the outcome of the 2020 election and the subsequent January 6 insurrection, polled 682 academic experts and a representative sample of 2,778 Americans between October 5 and 14.
The survey showed that about 67 percent of Democratic voters rated US elections as fraud-free, versus just 27 percent of Republican voters. , Bright Line Watch found that only 22 percent of Republican survey respondents regarded elections as free of fraud, compared to 71 percent of Democrats. While the gap between the two camps has narrowed somewhat, 糖心传媒渁 gigantic chasm糖心传媒� nevertheless remains, notes Helmke.
Join us for the Bright Line Watch on Monday, December 5, from 1 to 2 p.m. ET. The event, hosted by the University of Rochester糖心传媒檚 (as part of the cross-university ), is free and open to the public. is required.
糖心传媒淲hat糖心传媒檚 so pernicious about 糖心传媒榯he big lie糖心传媒� is that the vast majority of Trump supporters likely think they are protecting democracy, not undermining it.糖心传媒� Helmke says, 糖心传媒淎long with conceding defeat, the democratic principle of free and fair elections is absolutely fundamental to democracy,糖心传媒� she says. That糖心传媒檚 why denying Biden糖心传媒檚 legitimacy would not be 糖心传媒渦ndemocratic,糖心传媒� she says, if you believed that principle had been violated. But, Helmke stresses, 糖心传媒渘o credible evidence has been put forth to support that belief糖心传媒� [that the 2020 elections were not free and fair]. 糖心传媒淚t糖心传媒檚 all based on fact-free insinuation and conspiracy theories,糖心传媒� she says. 糖心传媒淚n the wake of the 2020 election, courts across the country rejected claims of voter fraud, as did Trump糖心传媒檚 own appointees at the Department of Justice, the FBI, and the Department of Homeland Security, as well as numerous Republican leaders.糖心传媒�
Bright Line Watch糖心传媒檚 key findings on the eve of the midterm elections:
- The gap between the confidence of Republicans and Democrats in American elections remains large but has diminished a little in the past year.
- Compared to November 2021, slightly more Republicans recognize the legitimacy of Biden糖心传媒檚 2020 victory and express confidence in the integrity of the vote count in the upcoming midterm elections.
- Both experts and the public, including four in five Republicans, agree that it糖心传媒檚 important for candidates who lose fair elections to publicly acknowledge defeat. Yet, hundreds of 2022 Republican candidates for Congress or statewide office continue to deny that former President Trump lost to Joe Biden in 2020 or continue to question the legitimacy of Biden糖心传媒檚 victory.
- Experts rate the prevalence of 2020 election denialism among Republican candidates for statewide office as the most abnormal and important event of the past year and one of the most extreme political events to take place since聽2016.
- 91 percent of experts rate a 2024 Trump candidacy a threat to democracy, including 35 percent who rate it as an 糖心传媒渆xtraordinary threat糖心传媒� and 39 percent who rate it a 糖心传媒渟erious threat.糖心传媒�
Possible legal exposure for Donald Trump
The former president faces potential legal exposure from allegations he tried to pressure Georgia糖心传媒檚 Secretary of State into , as well as possible charges related to his聽聽on the US Capitol, and an聽FBI investigation into his聽聽after leaving the White House. The Bright Line Watch team asked both the experts and the public survey respondents to assess whether they believed Trump had committed a crime in each case and if he should be prosecuted for it.
Key findings:
- 70 percent of experts view a prosecution of former President Trump as beneficial to US democracy.
- Majorities of the public believe Trump committed crimes in trying to overturn the 2020 election, in his actions related to the January 6 attack on the US Capitol, and in handling classified documents糖心传媒攁nd favor prosecution for each. The polled experts overwhelmingly support prosecution.
- However, the partisan splits on these issues are profound糖心传媒攁pproximately 90 percent of Democrats favor prosecution while nearly 90 percent of Republicans oppose it.
Bright Line Watch will field a second survey after the midterm elections to assess public and expert perceptions.
糖心传媒淲hat keeps me up at night is that the 糖心传媒榖ig lie糖心传媒� hasn’t just created a situation where only a third of Republicans view the current president of the United States as legitimate,糖心传媒� says Helmke. 糖心传媒淚t has also opened the door for candidates on the ballot now to prospectively undermine confidence in the election process at the state and local levels, and where a gubernatorial candidate like Kari Lake can and say, 糖心传媒業 will accept the results of the election if I win.糖心传媒� That糖心传媒檚 most concerning because once the key norm of conceding collapses it’s hard to return to the democratic rules of the game.糖心传媒�
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